Retailers expect $1 trillion in holiday spending

The National Retail Federation’s holiday forecast projects sales will increase by 4.2% to more than $1 trillion this holiday season, the organization said Thursday.

The annual report estimates retail sales in November and December will tally about $1.014 trillion, compared to $972 billion last year. However, inflation will contribute to the increase in dollars spent.

“This year’s forecast reflects our confidence that consumers will prioritize the holiday season even as they remain mindful of their budgets,” Matthew Shay, NRF president and CEO, said in a statement. “Retailers are prepared to meet that demand with competitive prices, value and choices for every budget.”

If the forecast meets expectations, retail sales for the 2026 holiday season will set yet another record in total sales. Last year, sales increased at a slower rate than in 2024, up 3.1%, while 2024 sales were 3.6% higher than 2023.

NRF estimates that retail stores will hire between 325,000 and 375,000 seasonal workers to handle the holiday rush. Last year, stores added about 356,000 seasonal workers during the same period.

Mark Mathews, chief economist and executive director of research for NRF, said inflation is estimated to contribute to about half of this year’s holiday spending growth.

“We head into the holiday season with strong spending momentum, as consumers remain the bright spot in the economy,” Mathews said in a statement. “At the same time, inflation, rising gas prices and pressure on household spending will affect consumers differently across income groups.”

Joe Fisher, United Press International

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Joe Fisher is an enterprise reporter for UPI and has reported on topics including elections, political campaigns, government policy and social issues. He is based in Clive, Iowa, and has a bachelor's degree in journalism from the University of Iowa. He has been published in The Gazette in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, The Des Moines Register and the Northwest Iowa Review.

• Joe Fisher, United Press International

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