Missouri primary turnout could hit 1.4 million

Missouri election officials expect as many as 1.4 million voters will cast ballots by the time polls close Tuesday, continuing the historic trend of high turnout in primary elections featuring major ballot questions.

Ballot measures drive voter interest

Secretary of State Denny Hoskins last week forecast turnout will be about 32% of registered voters, which, if correct, would be the highest primary total vote since 2004. That election involved a proposed constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriage and an historic Democratic primary where Gov. Bob Holden became the only Missouri governor ever defeated by his own party for re-election.

This year, there is no headline-grabbing statewide candidate primary. Instead, two ballot measures — Amendments 4 and 5 — have drawn more spending than in any candidate race.

Local election authority estimates show turnout will vary widely across the state, Hoskins’ office said in a statement to The Independent. Intense congressional primaries are underway in the northern half of the state in the 1st, 5th and 6th districts, plus hard-fought state legislative and local races.

Turnout is expected to be as low as 20% in some counties and as high as 70% in others, Hoskins said.

Because his estimate is based on local projections, it is only as good as the guesses behind it, Hoskins said. In 2022, turnout was estimated at just under 32% and actual turnout, of about 1 million voters, came in at 24%. There was a crowded U.S. Senate primary in the Republican Party that year but no major ballot measure. 

In 2018, there were no high-profile candidate primaries, but a right-to-work referendum drew 1.4 million voters.

Turnout expected to vary widely by county

Reports on early voting from some of the state’s larger counties show high voter interest. 

In Boone, Greene and St. Charles counties, the number of people who had voted by the end of last week exceeded early-voting numbers from the 2024 primary.

More than 4,000 people had voted in Boone County by the end of the day Thursday, said County Clerk Brianna Lennon. 

“The past two days have been over 500,” she said Friday morning. “I anticipate today will be similar.”

In Greene County, where as many as 55,000 people are likely to cast ballots, more than 4,600 had done so by Friday morning, County Clerk Shane Schoeller said. In 2024, the total absentee vote was just under 3,200.

Early voting ends Monday afternoon at local election offices and designated voting locations in larger counties.

In Missouri’s primary, a voter can request a ballot from the party they prefer — Democratic, Republican or Libertarian — or a nonpartisan ballot with only ballot issues. In Greene and St. Charles counties, a significant number of voters are skipping the candidate races and requesting a nonpartisan ballot.

Amendments 4 and 5 dominate the airwaves

Missouri Ethics Commission records show that almost $40 million has been spent on the two major ballot questions, Amendment 4, which would change the way majorities are tallied on constitutional amendments proposed by initiative; and Amendment 5, which would give lawmakers authority to increase and expand the sales tax to replace the personal income tax.

Of that amount, The Independent’s tracking of broadcast ad spending reports to the Federal Communications Commission shows almost $8.9 million for television and radio ads in the Amendment 5 debate, with proponents holding an edge of about 4-to-1. 

On Amendment 4, opponents have had the airwaves almost to themselves, with $3.9 million in spending.

Historic data shows that the voters who swell turnout for ballot-measure primaries lean heavily Democratic.

Greene and St. Charles counties are rich in Republican primary voters. In the past four primaries, an average of 33,403 Republicans have voted in Greene County primaries. In St. Charles County, the average of the past four primaries is 47,666 Republican votes. The highest primary vote in each was in the 2016 primary for governor, when there was no major ballot measure.

Democrats average 11,737 and 20,371 votes in non-ballot measure years in Greene and St. Charles, respectively. That jumps to 19,740 and 35,742 Democratic votes in years with major ballot measures.

Schoeller said almost 7.5% of the ballots cast so far this year have been non-partisan, compared with 0.8% in the 2024 primary. 

Big spending in congressional and legislative primaries

Along with the statewide ballot measure campaigns, congressional and legislative candidates are using airwaves, social media and mailboxes to bombard voters.

More than $6.5 million has been spent on broadcast ads to influence congressional primaries, mainly in the 1st, 5th and 6th Districts. 

Almost $2.5 million has been spent on television and radio in the 1st District Democratic primary in St. Louis, with an equal amount spent in the 5th District Republican primary.

In the 1st District, incumbent U.S. Rep. Wesley Bell has outspent former U.S. Rep. Cori Bush by a 12-1 margin. Both have been outspent by the United Democracy Project, the American Israel Public Affairs Committee-backed group that has spent $1.5 million on Bell’s behalf.

In the 5th District, where six candidates are vying to take on U.S. Rep. Emanuel Cleaver in the gerrymandered district, outside spending is also eclipsing candidate spending. Win It Back PAC, supporting state Sen. Rick Brattin, has spent $1.4 million on broadcast ads, while Brattin himself has spent $100,000.

Conservatives for American Excellence, backing Taylor Burks of Boone County, has spent $512,000, while Burks has spent $300,000 on television and radio. Another PAC, Show Me Valor, has spent $133,000 to blanket the district with radio ads promoting Burks.

State Senate races flooded with ads

The broadcast spending tally for state Senate races so far is $2.8 million. The largest amount is in the 18th District in northeast Missouri, where more than $720,000 has been spent on television and radio ads for state Reps. Ed Lewis of Moberly, Greg Sharpe of Ewing and business owner Dusty Blue of Mexico, Missouri.

Large amounts from NEMO Leadership PAC, set up to promote the political interests of the outgoing incumbent, Senate President Pro Tem Cindy O’Laughlin of Shelbina, have been funneled into other PACs, named Protect NEMO Values and Let’s Go Brandon PAC, for ads attacking Blue. 

The second-highest number of broadcast ads is being played in the 20th District of southwest Missouri, where incumbent Republican state Sen. Curtis Trent is trying to fend off a challenge from Springfield attorney Lori Rook. 

So far, $574,000 has been spent on broadcast ads, and Trent has a 2-to-1 advantage in on-air advertising.

Local primaries add to turnout pressure

St. Charles County is holding one of the most significant local Republican primaries, with former state Sen. Bill Eigel and Lake Saint Louis Mayor Jason Law challenging long-time incumbent County Executive Steve Ehlmann. An Eigel victory is viewed by many as setting him up for a 2028 primary rematch with incumbent Gov. Mike Kehoe.

Kurt Bahr, St. Charles County director of elections, said his office had received more than 14,000 ballots by Thursday afternoon.

“We have already surpassed our 2024 primary absentee numbers,” Bahr said.

Of that number, 8.5% of voters are opting for the non-partisan ballot. That could show a high level of interest in the ballot measures, he said.

“Or the dislike,” he said, “of political parties.”

Missouri Independent is part of States Newsroom, a nonprofit news network supported by grants and a coalition of donors as a 501c(3) public charity. Missouri Independent maintains editorial independence. Contact Editor Jason Hancock for questions: [email protected].

Rudi Keller, Missouri Independent

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Rudi Keller is the Deputy Editor of Missouri Independent and covers the state budget and the legislature. A graduate of the University of Missouri School of Journalism, he spent 22 of his 32 years in journalism covering Missouri government and politics for the Columbia Daily Tribune, where he won awards for spot news and investigative reporting.

Missouri Independent is part of States Newsroom, the nation’s largest state-focused nonprofit news organization.

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